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October 2026 Northeast Florida Housing Market Update
The latest mortgage-rate and housing-market reports show an important shift for buyers and sellers in St. Johns County.
Mortgage rates are rising, buyers have more homes to choose from, and properties are taking longer to sell.
But what does this mean if you’re planning to buy, sell or relist a home that recently expired?
Direct Answer
Higher mortgage rates are affecting affordability, while increased housing inventory is giving St. Johns County buyers more choices. For sellers, this means pricing, presentation and understanding the competition are becoming increasingly important.
What Do the Latest Numbers Tell Us?
Mortgage Rates | October 8, 2026
According to Freddie Mac’s national Primary Mortgage Market Survey:
- 30-year fixed: 7.40%, up from 7.28% the previous week.
- 15-year fixed: 6.73%, up from 6.60% the previous week.
These are national averages, not individual mortgage quotes for St. Johns County buyers.
St. Johns County Housing Market | September 2026
According to NEFAR:
- $568,750: Median single-family sales price.
- 1,456: Active homes for sale, 52 more than August.
- 3.7 months: Housing supply, up from 3.5 months.
- 42 days: Median time on market, up 6.3% from August.
- 390: Closed sales, compared with 398 in August.
The takeaway: Buyers have more choices, financing costs are higher, and sellers are competing for attention in a changing market.
What Does This Mean for St. Johns County Buyers?
If you’re considering a home in SilverLeaf, RiverTown, Nocatee, World Golf Village or St. Augustine, higher mortgage rates can affect your purchasing power.
Before making an offer, I recommend reviewing your financing with your lender and understanding the complete monthly cost, including property taxes, homeowners insurance and any HOA or CDD fees.
More inventory may provide additional choices and negotiating opportunities, but those opportunities depend on the individual property and its competition.
What Does This Mean for Sellers?
For homeowners preparing to sell, the September numbers reinforce the importance of understanding today’s market.
A home that was competitively priced several months ago may need a fresh evaluation today.
I recommend focusing on three areas:
1. Pricing: How does your home compare with similar properties currently available?
2. Presentation: Are your photos, property condition and marketing helping buyers recognize its value?
3. Buyer Feedback: What are showings, buyer comments and competing sales telling us?
What If Your Listing Expired?
This is especially important for homeowners whose listings expired without selling.
An expired listing doesn’t automatically mean something was wrong with the property.
It may mean buyers found stronger value elsewhere.
Before relisting, I would review the original asking price, days on market, showing activity, buyer feedback and competing properties, including nearby new construction.
The goal isn’t simply to relist your home. It’s to understand what needs to change before introducing it to buyers again.
Michelle’s Expert Insight
“When mortgage rates rise and buyers have more homes to compare, sellers need more than a listing. They need a strategy based on current market conditions, competing properties and buyer behavior. An expired listing is an opportunity to learn from the market and make informed adjustments.”
The Michelle Ortelli Signature Framework
LISTEN | Understand your goals, timeline and concerns about today’s market.
ANALYZE | Review mortgage-rate trends, neighborhood sales, competing listings, pricing and buyer feedback.
STRATEGIZE | Develop a pricing, presentation and marketing plan that reflects current market conditions.
NEGOTIATE | Evaluate offers, financing considerations, concessions and contract terms with your priorities in mind.
ACHIEVE | Move forward with confidence, informed decisions and a clear plan.
The Bottom Line
St. Johns County’s housing market is becoming more competitive for sellers, but that doesn’t mean buyers have disappeared.
September’s figures show more available homes, longer selling times and a slightly lower median sales price compared with August.
For buyers, understanding affordability and available choices is essential.
For sellers, particularly those with expired listings, understanding the competition and adjusting the strategy when necessary can make a meaningful difference.
Here’s the question I would ask St. Johns County homeowners:
“If buyers have more choices today, what makes your home the one they should choose?”
That’s where an effective selling strategy begins.
Michelle Ortelli | Trusted Real Estate Advisor
The Ortelli Team | Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty
St. Augustine | St. Johns County | Northeast Florida
Residential | Relocation | Second Homes | Global Luxury | Expired Listings
904-570-8130
mortelli@cbvfl.com
ortelliteam.com
Local Expertise. | Strategic Marketing. | Better Results.
Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026
- NEFAR September 2026 Housing Market Report, published October 8, 2026
Mortgage rates are national survey averages. Housing statistics represent St. Johns County single-family homes. Individual property values, financing terms and market conditions vary by neighborhood and property.
